Decrease of haemoconcentration reliably detects hydrostatic pulmonary oedema in dyspnoeic patients in the emergency department - a machine learning approach

Background: Haemoglobin variation (ΔHb) induced by fluid transfer through the intestitium has been proposed as a useful tool for detecting hydrostatic pulmonary oedema (HPO). However, its use in the emergency department (ED) setting still needs to be determined. Methods: In this observational retrospective monocentric study, ED patients admitted for acute dyspnoea were enrolled. Hb values were recorded both at ED presentation (T0) and after 4 to 8 h (T1). ΔHb between T1 and T0 (ΔHbT1-T0) was calculated as absolute and relative value. Two investigators, unaware of Hb values, defined the cause of dyspnoea as HPO and non-HPO. ΔHbT1-T0 ability to detect HPO was evaluated. A machine learning approach was used to develop a predictive tool for HPO, by considering the ability of ΔHb as covariate, together with baseline patient characteristics. Results: Seven-hundred-and-six dyspnoeic patients (203 HPO and 503 non-HPO) were enrolled over 19 months. Hb levels were significantly different between HPO and non-HPO patients both at T0 and T1 (p < 0.001). ΔHbT1-T0 were more pronounced in HPO than non-HPO patients, both as relative (-8.2 [-11.2 to -5.6] vs. 0.6 [-2.1 to 3.3] %) and absolute (-1.0 [-1.4 to -0.8] vs. 0.1 [-0.3 to 0.4] g/dL) values (p < 0.001). A relative ΔHbT1-T0 of -5% detected HPO with an area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUROC) of 0.901 [0.896–0.906]. Among the considered models, Gradient Boosting Machine showed excellent predictive ability in identifying HPO patients and was used to create a web-based application. ΔHbT1-T0 was confirmed as the most important covariate for HPO prediction. Conclusions: ΔHbT1-T0 in patients admitted for acute dyspnoea reliably identifies HPO in the ED setting. The machine learning predictive tool may represent a performing and clinically handy tool for confirming HPO.