In the twilight of probability: the dilemma of the decision-maker

This chapter analyszes the use of scientific concepts, observations, and models in their intersection with values in policy-making, with examples. Though we refer mainly to the experience of COVIDovid-19, the chapter goes beyond by describing how policy-making uses scientific knowledge in different ways and in different contexts, but almost never explicitly referring to underlying uncertainties, implicit values and assumptions. In addition to dissecting mathematical models to describe the evolution of the pandemic, we also refer to the historical evolution of the intertwining of science and values by referring to the pivotal theories of Max Weber, and how they need to change in the current Anthropocene context. We propose that politics or policy-making is the art of finding a balance between different values (and interests) on the basis of the scientific evidence available at the time. Much has changed since Weber’ times, and a radical separation between science and values is now contradicted by facts, i.e. the increasing commitment of scientists on political grounds in the wake of the environmental crisis. The Anthropocene reality can only be described as an increasingly cultured nature, that is constantly reshaped and destabilized by the action of human beings. This situation calls for a radical re-thinking of the relationships between science and values in policy-making.