A dynamic Bayesian network based framework to evaluate cascading effects in a power grid

In recentyears,thegrowinginteresttowardcomplexcriticalinfrastructuresandtheirinterdependen- cies havesolicitedneweffortsintheareaofmodelingandanalysisoflargeinterdependentsystems. Cascadingeffectsareatypicalphenomenonofdependenciesofcomponentsinsideasystemoramong systems.Thepresentpaperdealswiththemodelingofcascadingeffectsinapowergrid.Inparticular, we proposetomodelsucheffectsintheformofdynamicBayesiannetworks(DBN)whichcanbe derivedbymeansofspecificrules,fromthepowergridstructureexpressedintermsofseriesand parallelmodules.Incontrastwiththeavailabletechniques,DBNofferagoodtrade-offbetweenthe analyticaltractabilityandtherepresentationofthepropagationofthecascadingevent.Acasestudy taken fromtheliterature,isconsideredasrunningexample.