Explaining anti-immigrant sentiment through spatial analysis: a study of the 2019 European elections in Italy

Does the settling of foreigners cause a rise in anti-immigrant sentiment due to resource competition? Or do direct interactions lead to more respectful relations? And what if one also considers the settlement of foreigners in neighbouring municipalities? Applying an instrumental variable approach to variables collected at the Italian municipality level and including neighbouring areas, this paper aims to answer these questions by considering the vote for the Lega party in 2019 European parliamentary election as a proxy for the anti-immigration sentiment. Our results point out that, once controlling for most socio-economic variables and remoteness, a larger presence of foreigners within the municipality reduces the vote for the Lega. In contrast, the presence of immigrants in the neighbouring municipalities does not show a significant effect.