Predictive and prognostic value of inflammatory markers in locally advanced rectal cancer (PILLAR) – A multicentric analysis by the Italian Association of Radiotherapy and Clinical Oncology (AIRO) Gastrointestinal Study Group

Background: Patients (pts) affected with locally advanced rectal cancer (LARC) may respond differently to neoadjuvant chemoradiotherapy (nCRT). The identification of reliable biomarkers able to predict oncological outcomes could help in the development of risk-adapted treatment strategies. It has been suggested that inflammation parameters may have a role in predicting tumor response to nCRT and survival outcomes and in rectal cancer, but no definitive conclusion can be drawn at present. The aim of the current study is to evaluate the role of baseline inflammatory markers as prognostic and predictive factors in a large multicentric Italian cohort of LARC pts. Methods: Patients diagnosed with LARC from January 2002 to December 2019 in 9 Italian centers were retrospectively collected. Patients underwent long-course RT with chemotherapy based on fluoropyrimidine ± oxaliplatin followed by surgery. Inflammatory markers were retrieved based on a pre-treatment blood sample including HEI (hemo-eosinophils inflammation index), SII (systemic index of inflammation), NLR (neutrophil-to-lymphocyte ratio), PLR (platelet-to-lymphocyte ratio) and MLR (monocyte-to-lymphocyte ratio). Outcomes of interest were pathological complete response (pCR), disease-free survival (DFS), and overall survival (OS). Results: 808 pts were analyzed. pCR rate was 22 %, 5yOS and 5yDFS were 84.0% and 63.1% respectively. Multivariate analysis identified that a NLR cut-off value >1.2 and SII cut-off value >500 could predict pCR (p = 0.05 and 0.009 respectively). In addition to age, extramesorectal nodes and RT dose, MLR >0.18 (p = 0.03) and HEI = 3 (p = 0.05) were independent prognostic factors for DFS. Finally, age, RT dose, MLR with a cut-off >0.35 (p = 0.028) and HEI = 3 (p = 0.045) were independent predictors of OS. Conclusions: Higher values of baseline composite inflammatory markers can serve as predictors of lower pCR rates and worse survival outcomes in LARC patients undergoing nCRT. More reliable data from prospective studies could lead to the integration of these inexpensive and easy-to-derive tools into clinical practice.